2008 German Renewable Energy $42 Billion Market
The potential for renewable energy in Germany is excellent, according to a "Renewable Energies: Innovations for a Sustainable Energy Future, a report by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) on the the state of renewable energy in Germany, the latest in a series of ten reports. The German government is anticipating a dynamic expansion of renewable energy – for good reasons. It has therefore set these concrete goals:
– Increase the share of renewable energy in gross final consumption of energy to 18 % by 2020 according to the European Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources.
– Increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to at least 30 % by 2020, followed by further expansion.
– Increase the share of renewable energy in the heat supply to at least 14 % by 2020.
– Increase the share of biofuels in the fuel consumption to ca 12 % by 2020. Renewable energy should have a ten percent share of the energy consumption in the entire transportation sector by 2020.
– A 50 % share of renewable energy in the entire energy supply is aimed for by 2050 as a part of the strategy for sustainability.
– A complementary strategy goal for 2020 is to double the energy efficiency in the national economy from its value in 1990.
These goals are ambitious, but realistic. The already-existing market dynamics lead the study authors to expect that the 30 % goal set for 2020 will also be achieved or even exceeded. Renewable energy will then be an equal and essential partner in the electricity market.
The share of renewable energy in the heat supply sector has also notably increased over the past few years. Just the same, their need to catch up is significantly large than for the electricity and fuel sectors. With the Renew -able Energies Heat Act and the greatly increased funding for the market incentive program, shares of 14 %by 2020 and nearly 50 % by 2050 become realistic. In the overall strategy parallel measures supporting heat insulation, district heating networks in the heating supply and cogeneration plants are also necessary.
Thus renewable energy sources are increasingly meeting the energy requirement in Germany. If the growth dynamics described here for the individual sectors can be sustained, then a share of over 18 % of the final energy demand by 2020, as set by the European expansion goals, can be achieved. The aspired increase in renewable energy by the year 2020 will have considerable effects on Germany’s emissions balance. Already in 2008,ca 109 million tons carbon dioxide were avoided through the use of renewable energy use–this amount nearly doubles by 2020.
By mid-century, however, the total energy-related CO2emissions should be reduced to 80 to 95 % of their level in 1990. These recommendations from national and international experts are accommodated in the German government’s sustainability strategy. In order to achieve these goals, the support of both pillars “increased efficiency of energy conversion and use” and “renewable energy” are equally required. The German government’s goal states: “Renewable energy shall supply about half of the energy consumption by the middle of the century.”
The figure shows the possible development of renewable sources for electric power generation in Germany.
